Develop the appropriate communication to improve your customer behavior.
Focus on modeling desired customer behavior and identifying deviations from that, instead of trying to calculate customer lifetime values.
What is your customer lifetime anyway? If your customers go away and come back again, is that one or two lifetimes? These are tough questions to answer, especially for new businesses or businesses with different customer segments.
Use tools like Google Analytics to segment your customers and identify your best ones.
For example, if you run an ecommerce store, you could create two customer segments: repeat buyers who make low volume, high-value purchases, and one-time buyers who only bought once, usually a low average order value item.
Look at user buying patterns and seek out the most desirable behavior for your business. In other words, what do your most profitable users do? Once you know that, you can encourage more people to take those actions by identifying and preventing deviations.
For example, you run an ecommerce store and notice that 80% of your most valuable customers place a second order within thirty days of their first order. Your desired customer behavior would be a repeat purchase within thirty days, and your deviation or tripwire, would be any purchases after the thirty-day mark.
Taking the example in the above step, if a new customer comes in and buys on day 0 but doesn’t make another within 30 days, they’re less likely to become a repeat buyer. Therefore, you need to find ways to convince your customers to make a repeat purchase before the thirty days.
For example, Karmaloop marketed full-margin products to customers 30 days from their initial purchase and gave away margin as an incentive to bring them back after the 30 days.
Absence of activity is often a trigger in tripwire marketing campaigns. Tools like Klaviyo, Justuno, and even dynamic Facebook custom audiences, can be set up to automatically send out triggered emails, messages, or ads once a deviation from a customer model or tripwire, is identified.